Posted by
NOTLEGALROADKILLYET on Tuesday, January 30, 2007 8:52:47 PM
Something fundamental happened in 2000 that may impact the Republican party in Colorado for decades to come, and I'm not sure that many people have thought the situation through.
Before the 2000 election, the Republicans controlled almost all of the redistricting machinery, both houses of the legislature, and the Governorship. It did not, however, control the State Supreme Court, and that court was very willing to play partisan politics. All it needed was for the Democrats to take over one house of the legislature. If that happened, and if Chief Justice Mary Mullarkey was willing to appoint nothing but Democrats to do redistricting, the Democrats would control legislative redistricting.
Further, the Democrats in the State Senate could refuse to negotiate on congressional redistricting so that a Democratic Judge could usurp the function that the state Constitution clearly reserved to the legislative branch.
All of those things happened, and it came to pass that the Democrats, with the active assistance of their allies in the courts, stole the redistricting machinery and fundamentally changed the Republican Party in Colorado.
Republicans may not realize it yet, but their party has been changed. Until it regains control of the redistricting process, something that probably cannot happen until 2020 at the earliest, it has choices to make. It must choose between being the very conservative party it has been in the past, or a more inclusive party that is willing to tolerate Republican legislators who are not hard line pro-life, and pro-vouchers.
If it chooses to be a very conservative party, it can expect that it will never again regain control of the legislature, and it will never again have control of the Redistricting process. There simply are not enough voters in these newly created districts that embrace hard core conservative values, even if there is an abundance of hard core conservatives in neighboring districts.
Take Colorado Springs. As a whole, it is about as conservative as any city in the nation. Until 2000, it only occasionally sent a single Democrat to the legislature. Once the Democrats got control of the redistricting process, they were able to carve both a safe Democratic house district and a Senate district that has now gone Democratic. It is possible that they created a second House district with the possibility of going Democratic.
For two elections in a row, the Republicans have nominated reliably conservative candidates to run in the "safe" Democratic house district, and for two elections in a row, the Democrat has won handily. If Republicans are to ever control the redistricting machinery again, they have to win these kinds of districts, and to win that particular district, they need to nominate a candidate who closely matches the district in political philosophy.
Not only must Republicans win the district with a more liberal Republican than some might like, conservatives must tolerate and even welcome the reelection of that Republican until such time as a Republican majority can create a more balanced district through redistricting. If conservatives try to push him out through a primary, they are likely to find that they get a Democratic replacement again.
It remains to be seen if enough party discipline can be established to allow this to happen. If Republicans can't develop discipline, we can expect Colorado to have a Democratic Legislature as far as the eye can see.
I know this essay will raise hackles in some circles. Even so, I don't think there is an alternative strategy. It is ironic that in trying to push Colorado to the right by getting rid of a few "troublesome" (to some) Republican legislators, the "values voters" faction of the party is going to have to tolerate years of a more liberal party if they are to use redistricting to get back close to where they were.
Anyone who has a better idea, or even a different idea, is welcome to post it and I will bring it forward for discussion.
For those perceptive enough to notice, I am simply stealing a page from the Democratic 2006 Congressional race strategy. They found candidates who fit the districts they were running in, and enough won to change the composition and control of Congress.